Affective forecasting is a fancy economics and psychology term. It describes how we anticipate our future mental and emotional state may be affected by our current decisions and actions.  We anticipate whether our current actions will  affect future emotions in terms of being good or bad and how strong and long that emotion will be.

Stated more simply, often we carefully consider doing something by imagining what will transpire because of that action.  The hardwiring of our brain is based on the fight or flight survival mechanism, so we generally put a cautious and negative spin on the outcome.  Better safe than sorry, better the devil we know than the devil we don’t,  we say to ourselves.  If what we are contemplating is potentially unkind or dangerous such caution is warranted.  But is our life really that risky or untoward? 

Researchers have investigated the accuracy of our affective forecasting and noted that generally our predictions are poor and inaccurate, especially when we are considering doing something kind or compassionate.  Perhaps we refrain from striking up an innocent conservation with a stranger because we fear rejection or an awkward conversation.  Experiments tested this hypothesis: individuals were asked to either start or refrain from a random conversation with a fellow passenger on a train ride. Afterwards, they were asked to summarize their experience.  Those that engaged in conversation had a much more positive recollection of their train journey.

 There is a lot of research like this suggesting that human beings are bad at affective forecasting. Not just in short-term situations like the train study, but in the longer term, too. We seem particularly bad at forecasting the benefits of relationships. A big part of this is the obvious fact that relationships can be messy and unpredictable. This messiness is some of what prompts many of us to prefer being alone. It’s not just that we are seeking solitude; it’s that we want to avoid the potential mess of connecting with others. But we overestimate that mess and underestimate the beneficial effects of human connection. This is a feature of our decision making in general: we pay a lot of attention to potential costs and downplay or dismiss potential benefits. *

So, what are some of  the findings of this research?  Firstly, we should risk random acts of kindness more often.  If you want to do something kind, then do it!  Secondly, we are not very good at predicting the outcomes of our positive actions.  Thirdly, we are more likely to be pleasantly surprised than disappointed when we risk being kind in an uncertain situation.  The motto we were fed as children to not trust strangers may be good for youngsters, but not a helpful guide as we get older.  Risk being kind (but don’t be stupid, know your limits).

Reflection Source: www.Smallercup.org

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*:  The Good Life: Lessons from the World's Longest Study on Happiness by Robert Waldinger, Marc Schulz