FEAR AND FRACTIONS
Christine Lagarde suggested:
Fear is incomplete information.
Whereas incomplete knowledge is not the only explanation for being fearful, it certainly plays a leading role. The fight or flight reflex is based on the premise that where there is uncertainty, our primal instinct is to be frightened and alert, until we are better informed about what is going on. Better to be cautious then casual.
In 2021, is our fearful nature appropriate or helpful? The rate of deaths per million (or thousand) from war, natural disasters, violence, disease, famine, pandemics and dictatorships has NEVER been as low as it is now. (*) Absolutely, the numbers are high, but today there are over 7.8 billion humans compared to 1.9 billion humans a century earlier: a fourfold increase. Furthermore, death and tragedy unfortunately make “good” news reporting and increase readership.
An important part of fear management is taking Christine's observation to a rather mundane but useful topic of fractions (and probability). Yes, there are many worrying phenomenon out there (take your pick), but how real are these risks to you? Taking the example of Covid, for much of the early reporting days during the first wave in the UK, the media focused on the absolute number of US fatalities but failed to note that their rate per million was much lower than the UK or most EU states. No one talked about Belgium, which was in by far the worst state. On the other end, Canada (and BC particularly), was the poster child of excellence, but it was difficult to discern any calm.
So, what is my point? Certainly not to be negligent or foolhardy. But rather to pause when things are becoming anxious and consider the rate and type of danger imagined. How likely is the challenge contemplated going to happen? Is it one in a hundred, thousand, million or ???? Note that a daily rate of one in a million means, on average, it will take 1,000,000 days (or 2,740 years) before it will affect you, in all likelihood. When an event is reported, pause and consider what the sample size is (usually very small, perhaps a few dozen) and the total population size that the sample is taken from (usually very large and in the millions). Suddenly the news item becomes uninteresting, and your fear subsides.
Observing your fears objectively and rationally may result in many of them evaporating, which makes for a better day. Rather sober and boring advice to imagine the rate of the phenomena, but that is what more complete knowledge looks like. Remember, there is a third alternative to fight or flight, being to PAUSE and reflect.
Reflection Source: www.Smallercup.org
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*: Consider the research of Steven Pinker (The Better Angels of Our Nature) or Hans Rosling (Factfulness), which conclude that life is far safer now than it has ever been in recorded history, after looking at actual data (inevitably we all do die but much older, on average, than ever before).